Football predictions for the weekend Output of my model for 73 matches in eight European leagues: expected goals for each side, the chance of a home win, a draw and an away win, the chance of three or more goals and of both teams scoring.
The model works with goals and expected goals (xG) of both teams this season, home and away separately; for the Czech leagues and the Polish league it uses goals only. A prediction is not a pick. Picks I choose by hand, and they are on the home page .
Kick-off Match Expected goals 1 X 2 Over 2.5 Both score Sat 31 Oct, 13:30 CET Chelsea vs Manchester United 1.8 : 1.6 42% 24% 34% 66% 67% Sat 31 Oct, 16:00 CET Bournemouth vs Leeds 1.7 : 1.1 49% 26% 25% 53% 56% Sat 31 Oct, 16:00 CET Brentford vs Nottingham Forest 1.6 : 1.2 45% 27% 28% 52% 56% Sat 31 Oct, 16:00 CET Coventry vs Sunderland 1.2 : 1.2 36% 29% 34% 44% 51% Sat 31 Oct, 16:00 CET Hull vs Ipswich 1.6 : 1.2 45% 26% 29% 54% 58% Sat 31 Oct, 16:00 CET Manchester City vs Brighton 2.0 : 1.3 55% 23% 22% 64% 63% Sat 31 Oct, 18:30 CET Tottenham vs Crystal Palace 1.6 : 1.1 48% 27% 25% 50% 54% Sat 31 Oct, 21:00 CET Aston Villa vs Fulham 1.4 : 1.1 42% 28% 29% 47% 52% Sun 1 Nov, 17:30 CET Liverpool vs Arsenal 0.9 : 1.5 22% 28% 50% 43% 47% Mon 2 Nov, 21:00 CET Newcastle vs Everton 1.4 : 1.3 40% 28% 32% 50% 55%
Kick-off Match Expected goals 1 X 2 Over 2.5 Both score Fri 30 Oct, 21:00 CET Villarreal vs Espanyol 2.2 : 0.9 66% 20% 14% 61% 55% Sat 31 Oct, 14:00 CET Levante vs Atlético Madrid 1.2 : 2.0 21% 23% 56% 62% 61% Sat 31 Oct, 16:15 CET Rayo Vallecano vs Celta Vigo 1.2 : 1.1 37% 30% 33% 42% 49% Sat 31 Oct, 18:30 CET Real Betis vs Málaga 2.2 : 0.9 65% 21% 14% 61% 55% Sat 31 Oct, 21:00 CET Barcelona vs Alavés 3.4 : 0.8 85% 10% 5% 79% 54% Sun 1 Nov, 14:00 CET Getafe vs Sevilla 0.9 : 1.0 31% 34% 35% 29% 38% Sun 1 Nov, 16:15 CET Racing Santander vs Real Madrid 1.0 : 2.7 11% 16% 73% 72% 60% Sun 1 Nov, 18:30 CET Elche vs Valencia 1.7 : 1.1 49% 26% 25% 53% 56% Sun 1 Nov, 21:00 CET Athletic Bilbao vs Real Sociedad 1.7 : 1.4 45% 25% 30% 60% 62% Mon 2 Nov, 21:00 CET Deportivo La Coruña vs Osasuna 1.5 : 1.1 44% 28% 28% 47% 52%
Kick-off Match Expected goals 1 X 2 Over 2.5 Both score Sat 31 Oct, 15:00 CET Bologna vs Monza 1.8 : 1.3 48% 25% 27% 59% 61% Sat 31 Oct, 18:00 CET Udinese vs Roma 0.9 : 2.4 12% 18% 70% 65% 56% Sat 31 Oct, 20:45 CET AC Milan vs Inter 1.5 : 2.0 28% 23% 48% 67% 67% Sun 1 Nov, 12:30 CET Como vs Venezia 2.7 : 0.8 76% 16% 9% 68% 53% Sun 1 Nov, 15:00 CET Lazio vs Cagliari 1.7 : 0.8 57% 25% 17% 47% 47% Sun 1 Nov, 15:00 CET Frosinone vs Torino 1.9 : 1.7 43% 23% 34% 69% 69% Sun 1 Nov, 18:00 CET Lecce vs Genoa 1.2 : 1.2 36% 30% 34% 43% 50% Sun 1 Nov, 20:45 CET Juventus vs Napoli 1.5 : 1.1 47% 28% 26% 48% 52% Mon 2 Nov, 18:30 CET Sassuolo vs Fiorentina 1.9 : 1.4 49% 24% 27% 63% 64% Mon 2 Nov, 20:45 CET Atalanta vs Parma 1.9 : 0.8 62% 24% 14% 49% 47%
Kick-off Match Expected goals 1 X 2 Over 2.5 Both score Fri 30 Oct, 20:30 CET Elversberg vs Mainz 1.8 : 1.8 39% 23% 37% 70% 70% Sat 31 Oct, 15:30 CET Augsburg vs Freiburg 1.9 : 1.7 43% 23% 34% 71% 71% Sat 31 Oct, 15:30 CET Leverkusen vs Stuttgart 2.7 : 1.5 62% 19% 19% 78% 72% Sat 31 Oct, 15:30 CET Borussia M'gladbach vs Paderborn 1.8 : 1.2 50% 25% 25% 58% 60% Sat 31 Oct, 15:30 CET Schalke vs RB Leipzig 1.3 : 1.8 26% 25% 49% 59% 61% Sat 31 Oct, 15:30 CET Werder Bremen vs Hoffenheim 1.7 : 1.8 37% 24% 39% 67% 68% Sat 31 Oct, 18:30 CET Bayern Munich vs Dortmund 2.5 : 1.0 70% 18% 12% 67% 57% Sun 1 Nov, 15:30 CET Union Berlin vs 1. FC Köln 1.5 : 1.4 40% 27% 33% 55% 59% Sun 1 Nov, 17:30 CET Frankfurt vs Hamburg 2.3 : 1.1 64% 20% 16% 66% 61%
Kick-off Match Expected goals 1 X 2 Over 2.5 Both score Fri 30 Oct, 19:00 CET Nice vs Rennes 1.5 : 2.0 28% 23% 49% 67% 67% Fri 30 Oct, 19:00 CET Le Havre vs PSG 0.9 : 2.1 14% 21% 65% 58% 52% Fri 30 Oct, 21:05 CET Lille vs Lens 1.4 : 1.4 37% 27% 36% 55% 59% Sat 31 Oct, 20:45 CET Troyes vs Le Mans 1.6 : 1.4 40% 26% 34% 58% 61% Sat 31 Oct, 20:45 CET Lyon vs Angers 1.9 : 0.8 64% 23% 13% 50% 46% Sun 1 Nov, 15:00 CET Strasbourg vs Auxerre 2.0 : 1.3 53% 23% 24% 64% 63% Sun 1 Nov, 17:15 CET Paris FC vs Monaco 1.7 : 1.3 45% 26% 29% 58% 60% Sun 1 Nov, 20:45 CET Marseille vs Toulouse 2.0 : 1.6 47% 23% 30% 70% 70% Mon 2 Nov, 20:45 CET Lorient vs Brest 1.5 : 1.2 42% 28% 31% 51% 56%
Kick-off Match Expected goals 1 X 2 Over 2.5 Both score Fri 30 Oct, 18:00 CET Cracovia vs Motor Lublin 1.6 : 1.2 45% 27% 28% 52% 56% Fri 30 Oct, 20:30 CET Górnik Zabrze vs Legia Warszawa 1.3 : 1.1 40% 30% 30% 41% 48% Sat 31 Oct, 12:15 CET Wisła Płock vs Piast Gliwice 1.3 : 1.2 38% 29% 33% 44% 51% Sat 31 Oct, 14:45 CET Wieczysta Kraków vs Jagiellonia Białystok 1.7 : 1.6 39% 25% 36% 63% 66% Sat 31 Oct, 17:30 CET Lech Poznań vs Wisła Kraków 2.6 : 1.0 71% 17% 12% 69% 58% Sat 31 Oct, 20:15 CET GKS Katowice vs Widzew Łódź 1.9 : 1.1 55% 24% 21% 57% 57% Mon 2 Nov, 18:00 CET Radomiak Radom vs Śląsk Wrocław 1.7 : 1.4 43% 25% 32% 60% 63% Mon 2 Nov, 18:00 CET Zagłębie Lubin vs Korona Kielce 1.5 : 0.8 51% 29% 21% 41% 45% Mon 2 Nov, 20:30 CET Raków Częstochowa vs Pogoń Szczecin 1.3 : 1.6 30% 26% 44% 56% 59%
Kick-off Match Expected goals 1 X 2 Over 2.5 Both score Sat 31 Oct, 15:00 CET Artis Brno vs Zlín 1.7 : 1.1 52% 26% 23% 53% 55% Sat 31 Oct, 15:00 CET Pardubice vs Slovan Liberec 0.8 : 1.3 22% 31% 47% 34% 40% Sat 31 Oct, 15:00 CET Jablonec vs Slavia Prague 0.7 : 1.6 15% 26% 58% 42% 43% Sat 31 Oct, 15:00 CET Slovácko vs Teplice 1.0 : 1.6 23% 27% 50% 49% 52% Sat 31 Oct, 18:00 CET Sigma Olomouc vs Zbrojovka Brno 1.4 : 1.2 41% 28% 30% 48% 54% Sun 1 Nov, 13:00 CET Mladá Boleslav vs Hradec Králové 1.6 : 1.0 49% 27% 24% 48% 51% Sun 1 Nov, 15:00 CET Baník Ostrava vs Viktoria Plzeň 0.9 : 2.1 15% 22% 63% 57% 53% Sun 1 Nov, 18:00 CET Bohemians Prague vs Sparta Prague 1.0 : 1.7 21% 26% 52% 49% 51%
Kick-off Match Expected goals 1 X 2 Over 2.5 Both score Fri 30 Oct, 17:00 CET Vlašim vs Ústí nad Labem 1.7 : 1.4 45% 25% 30% 60% 62% Fri 30 Oct, 18:00 CET Karviná vs Slavia Prague B 2.6 : 1.4 62% 19% 19% 76% 71% Fri 30 Oct, 18:00 CET Prostějov vs Opava 1.4 : 1.6 35% 26% 39% 58% 61% Sat 31 Oct, 17:00 CET Příbram vs Táborsko 1.5 : 1.3 40% 27% 33% 53% 57% Sat 31 Oct, 18:00 CET Třinec vs Česká Lípa 1.6 : 1.4 42% 26% 32% 56% 60% Sun 1 Nov, 10:15 CET Viktoria Žižkov vs Dukla Prague 1.3 : 1.6 29% 26% 45% 56% 59% Sun 1 Nov, 14:00 CET Kladno vs Kroměříž 1.9 : 0.9 58% 24% 18% 53% 52% Mon 2 Nov, 17:00 CET Baník Ostrava B vs Jihlava 1.4 : 1.3 38% 28% 34% 51% 56%
What the model can and cannot do It estimates how many goals each team is likely to score from this season’s goals and xG. It does not know injuries, line-ups, motivation or rotation. That is why it is a guide, not a pick. My back-test on almost 5,000 matches showed that over the long run it does not beat the bookmakers’ closing odds, so treat a big gap between the model and the odds as a reason to look closer, not as a bet.
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