How I pick

The same routine is behind every pick. A model helps me sort the matches, the decision is mine.

1. A weekly shortlist. I go through roughly two hundred matches from 26 European leagues: table position, points and goals of both teams, odds and the chances from my model.
2. The model. It works with goals and expected goals (xG) of both teams this season, home and away separately. It tells me where the favourite is genuinely strong and where the odds only look attractive.
3. Team news. Before posting I check injuries and suspensions in two independent sources. A missing key player can be enough to drop a pick.
4. Only the strongest. On match days I post a few picks I trust most, sometimes just one, sometimes none.
5. Posted before kick-off, settled after. Every pick goes out with a timestamp on Telegram and into the record, where it stays, whatever the result.

No pick is a guarantee. Football is a low-scoring game and favourites lose. That is why I show every result, including the bad days.